Canada’s COVID-19 Response is Frustrated by Short-Term Thinking

As we almost enter the tenth month of the pandemic in Canada, we continue to be obsessed with short-term thinking. Instead of thinking about how we need to adapt the economy and our lives over the long-term, our government responses carry the message we are just a shut-down or vaccine away from things going back to the good old days we enjoyed back in February.

While we now know a vaccine is on the way, what we forget is that it will take time to distribute — a year, if not more. And, given reports on its effectiveness, any vaccine may require additional shots as the antibodies wane over a few months. With only 42% of adults in Canada getting the flu shot last year, we know that the distribution of a vaccine is challenged and that there will be many who just won’t get it.

More importantly, any vaccine needs to go to frontline workers and vulnerable populations first — that means medical professionals, those with compromised immune systems, seniors and, most importantly, racialized people and those with low incomes who have suffered the brunt of COVID cases. In Toronto, 83% of patients have been with racialized residents — they should be receiving any vaccine before white dudes like me who can work from home.

So yes, even if a vaccine arrives in early 2021, it’s unlikely most people will even receive it until late 2021 — and even then, it could take years before there is herd immunity. In the meantime, there is a need to think about how this changes how we go about our lives.

The Basics

Before we can think about how we have to reimagine and adjust our daily lives to coexist with COVID, some basics must be in place. If these basics aren’t in place, going to your local pub for a pint just isn’t a reasonable option.

Rapid Testing and Contact Tracing

The foundation for managing COVID starts with rapid testing and contact tracing — two things lacking in Ontario. In Toronto, 65% of all cases can’t be traced to their source because contact tracing is only being done for the most severe cases.

There remain long delays between testing and the delivery of results on the testing front, and only those who are showing symptoms can get tested. This means asymptomatic carriers aren’t being caught and, ultimately, the data the Province and municipalities use for decision making is about four days old. We are running blind.

There need to be investments in rapid testing and contact tracing for the long haul to get back on track. Those are fundamental to understanding where the virus is and responding before things get out of hand — something we need to do if we’re going to adapt to living with COVID.

One thing that would help with contact tracing would be making the COVID Alert App mandatory. People will scream about their privacy and shouldn’t have to download apps they don’t want. Let’s be realistic — many of these same people give away their data without a second thought on any number of social media platforms. Anyone who has a phone with Bell, Rogers, etc., already has a phone stocked full of apps they never requested.

The COVID Alert App is probably one of the few apps that started with privacy as its fundamental base when it was developed. It can help save lives and be a vital tool in assisting people in adjusting to a new reality where they can safely enjoy public settings again if everyone uses it.

There are criticisms that the app only works on newer phone models. That’s fair. But the digital divide shouldn’t be a reason for not embracing technology — it should be a reason for addressing the divide. The cost of updating phones for those who can’t afford to is a small price to pay to ensure mass contact tracing.

Open Data

There is a need to build a robust system for sharing data about COVID-19 infections and outbreaks. Governments and citizens need real-time data to make informed decisions — the most significant gap in this data right now is where outbreaks are occurring.

If people don’t know where outbreaks are happening, and the government is working on stale data, it’s hard to build confidence in the decisions governments are making. Everyone forgave for the first few months of the crisis as we all tried to learn about COVID-19; however, we know what we’re dealing with now. There is no reason why we don’t have the systems to share data so the public can understand what is happening in real-time.

Masks Forever

Masks are here to stay, so get used to them. If you’re going into an indoor public setting, masks are going to be with us for a long time to come. They are a crucial element in managing the spread of COVID and aiming to avoid resurgences once a vaccine program rolls out.

There are those, of course, that equivocate wearing a mask to a limit on their freedoms. What they fail to recognize is that freedoms come with responsibilities. Wearing a mask is about protecting other people — if the enjoyment of your freedoms means others could die, you have the responsibility to limit your freedom for the greater good. That’s what responsible citizens do.

Adjusting to Life with COVID-19

You can’t re-open the economy unless you get the public health crisis under control — it’s not one or the other. That’s a false choice. Any country succeeding at re-opening their economy has the basics implemented — rapid testing, contract tracing and masks. Get those in place, and then a rethought and reimagined economy can start to emerge.

Restaurants and Bars

One of the most impacted sectors from COVID-19 has been in the hospitality sector. Restaurants and bars — two of the things that make city living great — have seen their business evaporate. With the basics in place, there could be a safe path for restaurants and bars to reopen, but there will also need to be structural adjustments to operations and the sector.

Within restaurants, dining space will still need to be limited to provide more generous spacing between customers. There will need to be investments in operations, including protective equipment, upgraded ventilation systems, new cleaning regimes, and touchless payment and ordering systems.

On the human front, there needs to be a rethink of how those that cook and serve people can earn a living wage — and have access to paid time off if they need to self-isolate or get sick. These are people who are on the frontlines of COVID, don’t always have the financial resources to deal with time off, and, ultimately, because of their career choice, are putting themselves in harm’s way to serve all of us. They need to be adequately paid.

These investments, the reduced ability to generate revenue, and already tight margins mean that restaurants and bars’ business structure will need to change. As consumers, we’re going to need to pay more, but it also means the fixed cost structure of restaurants is going to need to change. Landlords are going to have to come to terms with lower rents. If they want lively main streets, cities are going to need to look at ways to reduce property taxes.

Main Street

Restaurants and bars are a vital ingredient in main street’s vibrancy, but so are all independent retailers and professional services that dot our downtowns. All of these are at risk due to COVID. The initial lockdown shut down independent retailers while allowing the corporate beasts like Walmart and Loblaws to remain open. This just reinforced the big retailers’ power, while Amazon’s ate up even more market share.

In Canada, online sales more than doubled, and the larger corporate retailers were better placed to benefit from this shift. At the same time, there has been a recognition of the importance of local independent retailers. People realize that our neighbourhoods will end up boarded up and uninspiring if these businesses don’t survive.

With consumer behaviours changing to online shopping out of both necessity and fear, there is a need for independent retailers and service businesses to embrace online channels — allowing locals to browse, buy online and pick-up; or book their hair cut online. Local businesses are at the point where the technology is both low-cost and user-friendly that they can reduce the friction consumers expect while competing with the large retailers.

To help businesses do this, governments need to help local businesses make this transition. While local governments are happy when Amazon announces a new distribution centre in their community, that “new” thousand jobs are more like two thousand jobs that were just lost on their main streets.

More importantly, governments are going to need to take an active role in rebuilding their main streets. This should mean investing in local entrepreneurs to identify and fill the product and service gaps within their communities.

One of the interesting things Toronto learned during COVID is that when people from the local community own local stores, they were much more likely to survive. When we support local entrepreneurs, the money stays within our communities, and we build more resilient main streets that can continue to pay the property taxes we need to fund the services our cities need.

Community Events, Live Music and Theatre

Probably the most challenging problem to solve in our communities is bringing back events and live entertainment. Admittedly, I’m not sure what the solution looks like yet, but you could see a situation where if everyone was forced to download the COVID Alert App, this could act as a tool to allow people to attend events. They would need to show the app and haven’t been in touch with anyone who has tested positive for COVID.

Along with investments in improved ventilation, more generous spacing, and, of course, the basics as identified earlier, could potentially allow large events to return. Ultimately, large events will continue to pose a risk regardless of how they are delivered. Still, rapid testing and proving that you haven’t been in contact with COVID are the first steps to getting live entertainment going again.

Working From Home

The move to working from home is going to change our cities and transportation patterns fundamentally. There’s no going back to everyone working from an office, and there will be a greater focus on hiring the best person for the job, no matter their location.

That said, I’m sure there will still be offices — after months of working from home, many are starved for social interaction — but people aren’t going to spend five days a week hanging out at an office when the work can be done from anywhere.

This will bring both challenges and opportunities. For downtown Toronto, the challenge will be getting people to come back to work, which means rebuilding the hospitality amenities that will draw them back. For other neighbourhoods, both within the GTA and beyond, working from home could mean more money staying local, resulting in their local restaurants and main streets being reinvigorated.

From a transportation perspective, the entire system is being built to get people to downtown Toronto. There will still be a need to get people downtown, but ultimately, the transit system needs to move people across the GTA to various nodes, meaning it will need to go both ways. This is going to require even more investments in infrastructure.

The cores of big cities like Toronto have survived pandemics before, and they will make it through this one. Still, it will take time, along with a rethink of transportation patterns, and lots of support to rebuild activities that draw people to the core before the action returns.

Delivering Education

Opening the economy requires schools to be functioning and COVID has provided the perfect opportunity to rethink how education is delivered. After months of no school in the spring of 2020, and after a few months of school during COVID, there are glimmers of how things could change for students.

Admittedly, I’ve been surprised there haven’t been more school lockdowns in Ontario, and at the same time, super impressed with how educators have responded with controls despite the bevy of last-minute changes before September’s start to the school year. That said, there should still be a push to change how education is delivered from kindergarten through high school. Some ideas include:

• Smaller Class Sizes — this is the time to invest in smaller and safer class sizes for those in K to 8. Just because there haven’t been mass COVID outbreaks doesn’t mean there won’t be. Investments in smaller class sizes will not only help protect kids but also improve their education outcomes.
• Kill Summer Vacation — moving to a balanced school year model that doesn’t increase the number of school days, but breaks up the school year into a shorter summer with a few more breaks throughout the year, means students don’t regress during a long break, which research has shown to be especially pronounced for students from low-income households. A balanced school schedule would also allow students to move more classes outside during the warmer weather, making them safer; while also providing more opportunities for lost time to be made up for students who have to take off classes due to COVID.
• Hybrid for the Long-Term — while learning online is not suited for every student in high school and post-secondary school, the option to learn online and through a mix of in-person and online should be something that is embraced over the long-term. Not to say that this should apply to every class, but those that don’t require specialized equipment or labs should be transitioned to an environment that aligns more with the tools students have at their disposal.

These changes will undoubtedly cost money, but they offer an opportunity to reinvent how education is delivered. Investments will be needed in teachers, both hiring and ensuring they can manage with technology and technology to support students at home and ultimately upgrading schools with proper ventilation and air conditioning. These are all things we should be doing for kids regardless of whether COVID or not — because there are better ways to deliver education, and those investments ultimately make our communities stronger.

In Conclusion

There is a need to get beyond the idea that things will go back to some known normal. A seismic change is underway, and it will fundamentally change how we live, work and engage with each other. It’s time to start experimenting with new ways of doing things — we are not a lockdown or vaccine away from the “good old days.” We are in a new reality, and it’s an opportunity to make things better than they were if only we embrace some long-term thinking.